MLB Best Bets Today August 17:
Rain threatens seven of the 15 games on the MLB card for today, as postponements are a little unlikely, but delays are very possible. Rain delays can definitely alter a handicap if they last long enough to bounce a starter from the game, so you’ll want to think about that and the timing of the showers.
Otherwise, we’ve got an interesting day of baseball on the docket with seven interleague series to go with four series in each league.
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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-218, 9)
6:05 p.m. ET
The Nationals and Phillies square off in today’s only game with two southpaw starters, as it will be MacKenzie Gore for Washington and Cristopher Sanchez for Philadelphia. A lot of people are looking to fade Gore, and understandably so with a 6.75 ERA and a 6.55 FIP in five starts here in the second half.
But, I’m looking to back Washington’s offense in the matchup against Sanchez. The 27-year-old lefty has made five starts in the second half and allowed 2, 3, 6, 1, and 7 runs. But, his average sinker velocity in his last three starts is below his season average and that’s why I’m looking deeper into his profile. He’s an extreme ground ball guy, so you do have to manufacture runs and sometimes a slower sinker creates more movement and can make the pitch a little bit more effective. However, he only has 17 strikeouts in 28 innings and hasn’t been able to create the same margin for error.
The Nationals have injected a little bit of life into this offense with recently-acquired Jose Tena and call-up Andres Chaparro, who was slashing .328/.405/.572 in Triple-A and had a .286/.419/.657 in 10 games for Rochester, which matters to me because he was still swinging it well after the league switch from the PCL to the International League.
CJ Abrams and James Wood are more than holding their own in L vs. L matchups. We’ve also got a breeze blowing out and some humid temps for this one. I don’t think it’s a big ask for Washington to scratch out a couple of runs.
Pick: Nationals 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-120)
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (-135, 8.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
The Twins and Rangers play Game 3 of their four-game set tonight and it will be a matchup between David Festa and Nathan Eovaldi to start. Let’s start with Eovaldi, who was diagnosed earlier this week with a low-grade oblique strain. The Rangers aren’t playing for anything, but Eovaldi is. His 2025 option vests if he throws 156 innings this season. He’s currently at 120.
I can’t imagine there are a whole lot of scenarios in which a pitcher would go out there with an oblique strain, but Eovaldi plans to gut it out. Good for him, I guess, but he’s going out there with an injury and it seems like more than that may be going on to begin with. In five starts in the second half, Eovaldi has allowed 19 runs on 31 hits in 26 innings. That’s a 6.58 ERA. Even with a 25/3 K/BB ratio, he’s still running a 5.21 FIP because he’s allowed seven home runs.
He has allowed a 46.4% Hard Hit% with a 10.7% Barrel% over those five starts and he’s allowed a 50% HH% over his last three starts with an average exit velo of 92.2 mph. Minnesota will send six lefties at him and they have a .441 SLG against Eovaldi on the season in 229 PA.
Festa’s first two MLB starts were ugly, as he allowed 12 runs on 16 hits in 10 innings of work. Since coming back on July 24, Festa has allowed just four runs on 12 hits with a 25/8 K/BB ratio in 17.2 innings of work. He came into the season as a Top 100 prospect per FanGraphs and the 6-foot-6 right-hander seemed to catch a second wind over the Break.
My guess is that diminutive right-hander Ronny Henriquez is the bridge from Festa to the back end of the bullpen. He’s 5-foot-10 and listed at just 155 pounds, so a big change from Festa for an inning or two. He’s got a 3.24 ERA across two levels this season. I also trust Rocco Baldelli to figure this thing out, even though Jhoan Duran is unavailable.
Pick: Twins +114
Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 7.5)
7:15 p.m. ET
Tanner Bibee and Freddy Peralta are the listed starters for this one between the Guardians and Brewers. The starting point with this handicap to me is that the Guardians bullpen is in the best shape it has been in for a while. Losing is never fun, but there can be silver linings. Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith have all had three full days off now with Wednesday’s comfortable win and Thursday’s off day.
Smith has been used as a fireman for first-year skipper Stephen Vogt and the fact that he is fresh means he can go to him in the middle innings if Bibee gets in trouble. The lone lefty in the pen, Tim Herrin, also hasn’t pitched in a couple of days, so that’s a positive in my mind as well.
The Brewers offense is definitely better than what Cleveland brings to the table, hence the line, but I could certainly make a strong argument preferring Bibee to Peralta. Bibee did just return after a little bit of a hiatus from a barking shoulder, but he came back against the Twins with 5.2 innings and one run allowed on six hits. He didn’t walk anybody and has allowed just four runs in four starts here in the second half.
Peralta, meanwhile, has allowed 15 runs over his last four starts and has allowed seven home runs in that span. He’s got a 21/11 K/BB ratio and has allowed a hit per inning with a 5.24 ERA and a 6.85 FIP in those four outings. He’s given up nine Barrels and 27 hard-hit balls for a 40.9% Hard Hit%. Right now, he’s just not locating all that well and he’s become overly reliant on the fastball.
With all of those factors in play, the Guardians are worth a look at a plus-money price.
Pick: Guardians +114
